Oscars 2014 – Best Picture Predictions

Keepin' it Reel with:

Joey Ziemniak

With Oscar season rapidly approaching, I thought I’d give my two cents on what I think the frontrunners are for Best Picture. With the film festivals mostly over, the majority of films that have a shot have all been finished and screened. My picks represent my opinions as well as what other critics have said about the upcoming films this winter that I have not seen yet. That said, here are my choices:

Shoe-Ins

• Gravity: This year’s “Life of Pi,” Gravity is a visual spectacle that should definitely sweep the visual effects categories. Expect a nomination for Sandra Bullock as well. The question is, will the Academy break out of their anti-science fiction film bubble and recognize Gravity as the game changer that it is?
• Captain Phillips: Tom Hanks almost has the Best Actor win on lock here, but Greengrass’s previous films have stumbled at the Oscars in the past. Possibly an Adapted Screenplay and Director nomination could push Phillips to the front of the pack.
• Inside Llewyn Davis: The Coen brothers indie film has made a splash at festivals this fall, garnering universal praise. They’re an Academy favorite, and with a few acting nominations possible, Llewyn Davis could have a shot at the title.
• American Hustle: David O. Russell’s films have been past Academy hits, and hot off of Silver Linings Playbook, the director should make some noise once Hustle finally hits theaters.
• August: Osage County: With an enormous ensemble cast and many Academy favorites, this adaptation of Tracy Letts’ award-winning play could become a sleeper hit this Christmas. With favorites like Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts, expect Osage County to pick up a couple of acting nominations as well.
• Nebraska: Alexander Payne’s black and white dramedy should play well with the older crowd. Bruce Dern made a splash Cannes, pushing him to the spotlight for Best Actor. Nebraska looks like it has a shot at the title, but we’ll have to see how it plays upon its release.

Most Likelys

• 12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen’s first mainstream hit, 12 Years a Slave will be this year’s “Beasts of the Southern Wild:” Does very well critically, gains a few acting nominations, but ultimately falls behind amidst the fan favorites.
• Blue Jasmine: Cate Blanchette seems poised to win Best Actress, but Woody Allen films have been difficult to break into the mainstream in the past.
• Blue is the Warmest Color: The Palme d’Or winner has been causing quite a bit of controversy, but it looks to be this year’s “Amour,” and might have a chance at a Best Picture nom.
• Dallas Buyers Club: Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto seem locked for acting noms, but its unknown director and limited release might hinder its big breakout.
• Saving Mr. Banks: The Walt Disney tale of the Mary Poppins writer looks to be a crowd-pleaser, but that might keep it from breaking in the top categories. A nomination for Hanks or Thompson seems likely, though.
• Rush: The Ron Howard Formula One drama was a critical success, and could net a few acting nominations, but Howard’s films have received mixed Academy attention in the past.

Possiblys

• The Wolf of Wall Street: Scorsese’s crime drama had some release date issues, and its long run time could lure audiences away. But with a cast featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill, we’ll have to wait and see once the film hits theaters on Christmas Day.
• Her: The Spike Jones drom-com has received critical acclaim thus far, but its interesting premise could turn some voters off. But the star-studded cast seems ready to make some noise in the acting nominations.
• Fruitvale Station: The early summer sleeper, Fruitvale Station should make a splash with its leading man, but hasn’t received much of a push to the front of the pack.
• All is Lost: The Robert Redford-helmed hit could break out thanks to what’s been called a phenomenal performance by Redford, but its unknown director and lack of any other actors might hurt its performance this spring.
• Lee Daniels’ The Butler: The crowd pleaser of the summer has received some negative controversy for its portrayal of certain presidents, but both Whitaker and Winfrey are likely front-runners in the acting race.
• Enough Said: Gandolfini’s last film could net him a nomination, but the Nicole Holofcener comedy might be pushed aside due to its comedy premise.
• Labor Day: The Jason Reitman drama might be a last-minute hit with its direction and acting, but with its late release date and lack of marketing, it might fall aside for the bigger guns.
• Philomena: The British comedy made some noise when it premiered last month, and Dench’s performance might net her a nomination, but once again the lack of attention and support surrounding the film could hurt it.

Long-Shots

• The Secret Life of Walter Mitty: The Ben Stiller-directed vehicle has audience’s attention, but critics received it negatively when it premiered at the New York Film Festival last month.
• Frances Ha: The Netherlands dramedy played well with critics in its limited release, but the foreign film most likely won’t break into American viewer’s list of favorites.
• The Book Thief: The adaptation of the popular novel hasn’t been making much noise since its release, and it doesn’t seem to be playing for the big awards.
• Before Midnight: The Linklater finale to the acclaimed trilogy might capture a screenplay nomination, but his films have received mixed Academy support in the past.

Reporting by: Joey Ziemniak

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